# Using SIR Model and Recurrence Formula to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in Sambalpur: A Mathematical Study

## Authors

• S. Kapoor Department of Science and Mathematics, Regional Institute of Education (NCERT), Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
• Roushnee Naik Department of Science and Mathematics, Regional Institute of Education (NCERT), Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

## Keywords:

COVID-19, SIR Model, recurrence formula, spread

## Abstract

Corona Virus has spread across the globe and is creating havoc. Lockdown
is being imposed worldwide depending on the number of cases. Everyone
to keep them safe. But all these precautions are not enough to curb the
spread of the disease. People are still getting infected even after taking proper
precautions and obeying the lockdown rule. We need to know in advance
the approximate number of infected people so that we can devise better
precautionary measures to curb the spread of the virus. So we use a simple
SIR Model and solve it using basic differentiation and integration techniques
and then use recurrence formula approach to predict the spread of COVID-
19 in the city of Sambalpur of Odisha state. We compare the outcome of the
model with the real time data and we arrive at the conclusion that the model
is efficient in predicting the spread using the recurrence formula till the date
05/06/2021.

## Author Biographies

### S. Kapoor , Department of Science and Mathematics, Regional Institute of Education (NCERT), Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

S. Kapoor is an Assistant Professor of Mathematics at the Regional Institute
of Education, Bhubaneswar (A Unit of National Council of Educational
Research and Training, Delhi). He completed his Ph. D in Mathematics at
IIT Roorkee.
Dr Kapoor is presently working in the fields of Computational Fluid
Dynamics, Applied Numerical Method, Hydrodynamics Stability in Porous
Media.

### Roushnee Naik, Department of Science and Mathematics, Regional Institute of Education (NCERT), Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

Roushnee Naik is a student of Mathematics. She has completed
her B.Sc.(Mathematics) B.Ed from Regional Institute of Education
Bhubaneswar. She is currently pursuing M.Sc.(Mathematics) at Govt.
Autonomous College, Rourkela.

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//statedashboard.odisha.gov.in/Pages/district

2021-06-09

## How to Cite

Kapoor , S., & Naik, R. (2021). Using SIR Model and Recurrence Formula to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in Sambalpur: A Mathematical Study. Journal of Graphic Era University, 9(2), 231–256. https://doi.org/10.13052/jgeu0975-1416.928

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