Numerical Forecasting of Covid-19 Epidemic in Odisha Using S.I.R Model: A Case Study
Keywords:SIR model, basic reproduction number, COVID-19, lockdown, herd immunity.
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of SIR model (Susceptible- Infected-
Removed) in predicting the future development of infectious disease caused
by SARS-CoV-2 virus for the Indian state of Odisha. This model helps in
checking the effectiveness of controlling measures like lockdown policies
and helps in framing new strategies to control the spread of the disease.
We formulate a set of differential equations to find the rate of change of
susceptible, infected and removed population with respect to time and solve
it using Euler’s method. Using the cumulative data of confirmed cases, we
try to find the answers to the question of COVID-19 surge. Also, through this
we predict the trend in the spread of covid-19 in the state for the next few
months. The analysis includes data from March 1 (which is marked as the
start of second wave of COVID) to June 28, 2021. We propose predictions
on various parameters and factors related to the spread of COVID-19 and
on the number of susceptible, infected and removed population until June 2021. By comparing the daily recorded data with the data from our modeling
approaches, we conclude that the spread of COVID-19 can be under control
in all communities, if proper lockdown restrictions and strong policies are
implemented to control the infection rates.
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