Prediction Model for the Electrical Industry in Spain— The Trend Toward Renewable Energy

  • M.A. Verdejo
  • J. Fernández
Keywords: Prediction Model, Renewable Energy

Abstract

During 2008-2013, the global economic crisis and financial uncertainty brought important economic adjustments in developed countries and especially in the European Union (EU). Currently, however, key national and international agencies predict the consolidation and acceleration of growth of the European economy during 2014-2015, driven by recovery of trust and improved financial conditions.

According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the reports of Spanish energy sector, final demand for electricity dropped 3.4% in 2013 over the previous year, which was evidence of lower economic activity and structural differences in consumption. The final electricity demand in 2013 was 232,008 GWh, down 3.4% from the previous year. However, the forecast for 2014 and 2015 foresees an increase of 1.5%, which will influence the changing trend model of the electricity industry in Spain.

This model allows predicting the potential political and economic implications, which are dependant on the discussed variables. The most influential parameters that have been considered to establish the prediction model are: absorption and emission of carbon dioxide, forest cover, demand and primary energy intensity, energy carriers (coal, fuel, gas, hydro, nuclear and renewables), gross domestic product and rates, and energy vectors for all the variables in the period. The results clearly show that sustainability will be a fact when making energy efficiency programs, both in the electrical industry as in other energy sectors.

Additionally, CO2 emissions will be reduced if proper action plans and efficiency policies are developed.

In evaluating scenarios proposed in this article, the model concludes that the efficiency scenario will save 107 Mt CO2, which will save €1.07 billion, according to the average estimate of the price of emission rights in the European Union.

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Author Biographies

M.A. Verdejo

M.A. Verdejo is a university professor and researcher in the department of electrical engineering at the Polytechnic School of Linares, University of Jaen, Spain. His research is based on energy models, distributed power generation technologies, and smart grids.

J. Fernández

J. Moreno is a university professor and researcher in the department of electrical engineering at the Polytechnic School of Linares, University of Jaen, Spain.

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Published
2015-12-01
Section
Articles