BAYESIAN INFORMATICS MODELNG OF SYNERGETIC DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AGRO SYSTEMS

  • Rajeev Pandey Department of Statistics, Lucknow University, Lucknow (India)
  • Prasoon Verma Department of Statistics, Lucknow University, Lucknow (India)
  • Lalit M Joshi Department of Statistics, Kumaun University, Almora (India)
Keywords: General State Vector Linear Model, Aggregate Model, Bayesian Aggregation model, Posterior risk

Abstract

Integrative thinking patterns have brought about a significant change in our approach towards analysis and applications of various statistical-informatics techniques in our surroundings. The present human society transforming into Information Society has undergone a tremendous metamorphosis from a mundane and monotonous survival to a more exotic and challenging existence. This has revolutionized the overall scenario to the extent that the whole living system can now be thought of as a large-scale complex synergetic system constituting of N dimensional vistas. Rural Agro System has always been the lifetime of the human civilization. Giving continuation to this trend, the present paper puts forward Bayesian-informatics approach dealing with socio-economic coordinates of Rural- Agro System. The present study attempts in the direction of examining posterior risk and their analysis with the hope that the Bayesian aggregate model would simulate behaviour of the real system at the highest level of accuracy possible under the employed modeling strategy. It has been demonstrated that the Bayesian aggregate models are recursive in nature and they minimize the posterior risk with respect to the time of the system at present. It has also been depicted that the time of minimum posterior risk does not correspond to the time of minimum relative risk, as compared with General State Vector Linear Model (GSVLM) stated by Efraim Halfon [4]in Theoretical Systems Ecology: Advances and Case Studies.

 

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Published
2009-08-21
Section
Articles