SPREAD OF HIV/AIDS-FUTURE PROSPECTS

  • Payal Mishra Deptt. of Statistics, Institute of Social Sciences, Dr B R Ambedkar University, Agra, India
  • Vineeta Singh Deptt. of Statistics, Institute of Social Sciences, Dr B R Ambedkar University, Agra, India
Keywords: Statistical Model, Estimation Heterosexual, HIV

Abstract

This study consists of a pure statistical model for estimating the rate of spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus as well as AIDS with the help of available secondary data of Uttar Pradesh. Data on some applicable variables like year of test, age group, gender, mode of transmitting disease and the percentage which is positive while testing were analyzed. The Generating function approach ahs been used to solve the associated Birth Process model. A reduction from normal population is numerically noticed through the use of Birth Process model. It is found that the age group (30-39) is on the greatest risk as out of an assumed 10500 members of each group while the unsafe heterosexual relations are the biggest mode of transmitting disease.

 

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Published
2011-11-03
Section
Articles